On 14 September 2026, Maersk said four more of its joint services with Hapag-Lloyd — AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 — would move from the Cape of Good Hope to the trans-Suez corridor, following earlier returns announced in July and August. The carriers said further changes would depend on the absence of escalation in the region. (Reuters) By mid-September, just over a quarter of container capacity deployed in both directions between Europe and Asia was transiting the canal, up from 17% on 3 August. (Bloomberg) Sea Intelligence data cited by Upply put the September average at 27% in both directions, with 57% of Far East–Mediterranean capacity using the canal; HMM returned its MD4 service on 23 September, and MSC partially restored its Indusa service. The Suez Canal Authority reported that container ships carried 72.1 million net tonnes through the canal in the first eight months of 2026, up 54.2% year on year. Asia–Europe rates came under downward pressure, with most of the market around USD 3,000 per 40-foot container to North Europe and USD 4,000 to the Mediterranean. The risk has not cleared: Upply reported that Houthi forces took control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in mid-September, and noted that a serious attack on a Western-owned container ship could send returning services back around Africa. (Upply)
Aurelane’s read
Our April note covered the cost of the Cape diversion; this is the first sustained movement in the other direction. The figures here cover Asia–Europe trades, but the same corridor carries many lanes into the Middle East and East Africa. Shorter transits should ease landed costs over time, yet carriers are explicit that the return is conditional. Lead-time and buffer-stock assumptions are best kept conservative until the route has held for longer.